Industrial Output Growth Slows to 1.0% in March

April 16, 2018

Ukraine’s aggregate industrial output rose by 1.0% YoY in March, slowing down from growth of 1.9% YoY in February, the State Statistics Committee (UkrStat) reported on Apr 23. The month-on-month change (unadjusted for the different number of days) was a jump of 7.6%. Output increased in March by 3.3% YoY in the extraction sector and by 22% YoY in the utility sector while falling by 4.6% YoY in the manufacturing sector. For 3M18, the IP index is up by 2.4% YoY.

March was the last month when the inclusion of output from the Donbass occupied territories was included in the comparison base, thereby distorting the industrial output data. In the middle of March last year, the Poroshenko administration decided to officially disrupt all economic ties with the separatist-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. The halt in this trading relationship led to a sharp drop in official steel and coal production statistics. This is why we are seeing a 17% YoY increase in coal extraction as reported by UkrStat for March 2018, while for 3M18 the overall coal output in the country still down by 2.8% YoY. A similar situation was observed in the utility sector, with electricity generation rising by 14.6% YoY in March while for 3M18 there is still a 0.5% YoY decline.      
In other macroeconomic statistics, UkrStat said that retail sales growth remained strong at 7.6% YoY in March, while the construction sector contracted by 0.4% YoY in the period

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