15 Апреля 2019

Ukrainian sovereigns finished higher last week as investors appear to have already priced in the expectation that President Poroshenko will lose next weekend’s presidential election and be replaced by 41-year old actor and entertainment mogul Vladimir Zelenskiy in June. In economic news, the IMF said it anticipates a reduction in Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 62% by the end of this year. This forecast is contained in the updated World Economic Outlook. According to the report, this figure will continue to decline in the following years: in 2020 to 57.9% and in 2021 to 53.8%. In absolute terms, the cumulative national debt of Ukraine in 2018 increased by 2.5%, to USD 78.3bn. In a separate document, the IMF improved the assessment of Ukraine’s current account deficit for 2019 to 2.5% of GDP from 2.9% of GDP. The country’s longest outstanding issue, Ukraine-32s, gained 0.9% to close at 91.0/91.7 (8.6%/8.5%), and medium-term benchmark Ukraine-24s added 0.7% to 97.4/98.1 (8.5%/8.3%). The VRI derivatives (linked to Ukraine’s future GDP growth with expiration in 2040) rose by a firm 2.1% to 66.4/67.4 cents on the dollar.