29 Января 2018

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds, and especially the country’s GDP warrants, finished higher last week as investors cheered comments from Finance Minister Oleksandr Danyliuk that MinFin will be able to issue a new Eurobond in 1H18 to cover most of the government’s near term financing needs. In the current bullish global debt market environment, we expect Ukraine to be able to sell at least USD 1.5bn in 10-year bonds with a yield at 7% or slightly less. Meanwhile, President Poroshenko told Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland that he expects that Kyiv will receive a new loan disbursement from the IMF, as Ukraine “has met 80%” of its commitments. However, we remain rather skeptical that the IMF will disburse the delayed tranche of USD 1.9bn unless Poroshenko delivers on key economic reform measures, which looks unlikely given that the Ukraine’s presidential election cycle will start by mid-year.