Ukraine Industrial Output Shows Recovery, Rising 2.1% YoY in March

02 Мая 2019
 

News
Ukraine’s aggregate industrial output showed a firm sign of recovery after a four-month contraction streak, rising by 2.1% YoY in March, the State Statistics Committee (UkrStat) reported last week. The month-on-month change (unadjusted for the different number of days) was a growth of 12%. In the manufacturing sector, the aggregate production increase was 5.0% YoY and in the extraction sector growth it was 1.8% YoY, while in the utility sector there was a decline of 8.1% YoY. For 3M19, the UkrStat’s industrial index is still down by 0.9% YoY.


Commentary
We were pleased to see this performance improvement in the country’s real sector, as the four-month industrial production contraction in November-February period was beginning to look like a disturbing trend. The manufacturing index growth in March was mainly driven by a solid 8.9% YoY increase in steel sector output, which is unlikely to be repeated in April. Nevertheless, UkrStat said that the durable goods production in March rose by 15.4% YoY and consumer goods output increased by 5.2% YoY, while energy output dropped by 4.7% YoY in the period; this, like the utility sector decline, is probably related to much warmer weather in Ukraine this March than was seen a year earlier.   
In other macroeconomic statistics, UkrStat said that retail sales accelerated their growth, rising 8.9% YoY in March after gaining 7.2% in February. The construction sector’s index increased by an impressive 28.9% YoY in March after 19.5% YoY growth for February, as the country continued a massive investment in new roads and infrastructure renovations. The index measuring off-season agricultural production grew by 3.4% YoY in 3M19. 


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