Headline Inflation Remains Close to 9% After September Data

16 Октября 2018
 

News
Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee reported that rolling 12-month consumer inflation inched down to 8.9% in September from 9.0% in August (the July figure was also 8.9%). On a month-on-month basis, the CPI index showed a 1.9% increase in September, according to data released on Oct 9


Commentary
The rather large-looking 1.9% MoM inflation for September is actually about average for the traditional seasonal pattern in Ukraine, and leaves the index still in good shape to finish 2018 in single digits. Among individual consumer price basket components, there was a 10% MoM rise in prices for educational services associated with the start of the new school year. Another notable CPI component with rising prices was transportation services. An upward trend in the global oil price led to an aggregate 2.8% MoM increase in transportation services in Ukraine. This category has risen by 10.7% since the start of the year. The aggregate food price index added 1.6% MoM in September, but the category is still up by only 3.1% since the start of the year. Prices for bread advanced by 12.7% in January-September on the back of a 17.2% YtD price increase  for the benchmark FOB Black Sea price for wheat (to USD 211 per tonne). 


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