Ukraine Industrial Decline Slows to 12% YoY in May After 16% Drop in April

June 30, 2020

Ukraine’s nationwide industrial output was lower by 12.2% YoY in May, improving somewhat from the drop of 16.2% YoY registered in April, the State Statistics Committee (UkrStat) reported on Tuesday (Jun 23). Earlier this year, Ukraine’s main industrial production index had dropped by 7.7% YoY in March and by 5.0% YoY (adjusted for the extra day compared to 2019) in February. The month-on-month change in May (unadjusted for the different number of days) was a growth of 4.9%. In the manufacturing sector, the aggregate production fall was 15.6% YoY in May after a drop of 20.3% YoY in April. In the utility sector the output decrease was 1.9% YoY, and 8.9% YoY in the extraction industry. For 5M20, UkrStat’s industrial index is down by 8.7% YoY.


UkrStat does not adjust its index performance for different month lengths; taking into account one additional day in May compared to April, industrial production grew by 2.8%, with the main contribution coming from the utility sector, which saw a rise of 6.8% MoM.
Looking at particular industrial sectors, there was a very poor performance in coal extraction, which was down by a massive 45% YoY in May after the temporary closure of Ukraine’s largest thermal coal mine DTEK Pavlograd amid excessive inventories at major thermal power plants. Ukraine’s electricity sector is currently experiencing notable turbulence, with very high prices compared to natural gas energy, and with a large volume of unpaid accounts for electricity between market players.
In other macroeconomic statistics for May, retail sales declined by 3.1% YoY, a much-improved performance after tumbling by 15% YoY in April. On a month-on-month basis retail sales rose by 15%. For 5M20, the retail sales index remains higher by 3.1% YoY, beating our pessimistic expectation the retail segment would turn to negative territory after the May data.
In the agro sector, aggregate output in January-May declined by a moderate 2.0% YoY.


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